The Economy

[Miles]

The Dow was right at 18,000 yesterday, an all time high. Job creation is booming at 1990's levels. GDP growth has been strong for three consecutive quarters. Unemployment is under 6%. Gas is at 2.50 a gallon.

Happy?

[Dan R.]

Always happy.
I wish the economy was more manufacturing and less service oriented.
Government spending is out of control, which is harmful.
The economy is very fragile, IMO.
I hope it continues to strengthen.

[graffster]

I'll second that Dan

[H. Adkins]

The real inflation rate makes me sad.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42551209

Put your wages in an inflation calculator sometime & when you see the results relize that is based on the CPI & not real inflation.

[dan k.]

I also like the price of gas and the declining unemployment rate. Also agree National Debt and Inflation are very, very bad signs.

[Miles]

But can we all agree that we are in a much, much better place than 6 years ago? And we are actually in a pretty strong recovery right now.

And Obamacare hasnt proven to be a job killer like many predicted. I know we wont agree on that!

[graniteman]

I am extremely happy. Except the price of gas has nothing to do with the president. And worst of all our nation's debt has gone from 8 trillion (no idea how many zeros that is) to 17 trillion probably going to break 18 today or tomorrow. Not cool.

Hopefully we can pay off some debt now. HahaHaha we all know that will never happen

[Omni Cubed Larry]

Yes, I'm happy... things are better today than a few years ago, BUT we now have some major underlying issues.

Oops, we surpassed 18T today. Just like Brian said... not cool.
http://www.usadebtclock.com/

[GuyboR]

But can we all agree that we are in a much, much better place than 6 years ago?

Miles, here's my analogy of where we are. It's similar to when you have an injury. You can take morphine and feel better b/c you have treated the symptom, but you haven't cured the actual cause of the pain. Eventually the euphoria/pain killer will wear off and you will feel as bad if not worse.

The economy "seems" better by certain symptoms being "patched". The government (both D and R) know how to tweak and control those symptoms to make us "feel better". But the underlying pain is still there, only masked. Where are we going to get the resources to pay the 18 trillion of debt we have? When the government stops printing money and artificially boosting the economy, the good times hang over is going to be very very painful.

[Omni Cubed Larry]

Good analogy Guy.

Here is another way to think about it in terms of us, or our family, or our business...

- When times are tough, we may need to live off of our savings.
- If we don't have savings (like we should), or if we have run out of savings, then we may need to borrow some money or live off of credit cards.
- When our situation begins to turns around, we don't just forget about the big hole we dug ourselves into and keep living like nothing happened. We make a plan and pay off that debt as we are able and as our situation improves.
- Oh, and when times are tough, we should "tighten our belts" and "pinch pennies" right? ie. change our standard of living.

Now the questions are...
1) Does the government ever "tighten its belt" or "pinch pennies" (ie. change it's standard of living)? And before anyone says yes, I mean more than one hole on the belt when I ask that question.

2) Is the government making plans to deal with the hole we dug ourselves into, or is it just pretending like everything is great and nothing happened?

[Dan R.]

We, as a country are far worse today than 6 years ago, by 9 trillion dollars. That is how we keep score. Right?

[Omni Cubed Larry]

I "feel" better today as an individual, mainly because I can pay myself and save a little now. But you do have a very good point Dan, our country (and our children) are far worse off.

Here is a tiny sliver of perspective of just how big a mess we are in...
If you were alive when Christ was born and you spent 1 million dollars every single day since that point, you still would not have spent 1 trillion dollars by now.

[Ken Lago]

Anyone knows WHO we owe 18 trillions to?

[Miles]

Here's an interesting article about what each president contributed to the debt.
http://useconomy.about.com/od/usdebtand ... sident.htm

By the logic that we are measured by our debt, Ronald Reagan was a disaster.

This post was obviously tounge in cheek because I knew that most of you would never give any credit to this President. When gas was nearly 4 dollars a gallon, it was all his fault. When it's 2.43 (what I paid today) he has nothing to do with it. When unemployment was 10%, it was because of his policies! when it's 5.7% it's due to trick counting and not his policies.

The economy is in great shape, especially when compared to what it was 6 years ago. Go out and enjoy!

[ageless]

I had some oil guys warn me today to put all my money in the piggy bank because the year was going to start off bad. He said they've opened the flood gates on oil and flooding the market. They are hearing the price will be dropping close to $30. Not good for Texas if that is true.

[Dan R.]

Unemployment is at that level, because they changed the method for figuring it.
Go and enjoy may be a bit premature advice, imo.

This president is a joke in every way possible, from his apology tour to his ignorance to his arrogance to his constant lieing to his executive orders. History will judge him far harsher than his contemporaries.

The economy is a mess. Just because people are spending money, doesn't mean it is a recovery.

What is the M2 money supply? You don't know because the govt quit publishing it. Maybe we can spend our way out of this, similar to what Brazil did last decade. I doubt most Americans have the stomach for 1000%+ inflation for the required extended period of time to achieve this.

This will get more interesting. Is oil going down beaches the economy is good or because people can not afford it?

If the economy was expanding (true recovery), would not more more energy be required, not less? More demand, same supply, price should go up, eh?

Of course, it could be all those wind turbines (each subsidized $1m each), or the $70,000 Chevy Volts all the middle class people are buying, or the $5/gallon ethenol they are mixing with our $3/gallon gas to save us money that is creating so much energy that it is forcing oil prices down.

Or it could be Muslim conspiracy, I really do not know.

[Miles]

Oil is going.down because of supply. The US is now producing more oil than Saudi Arabia.

The rest of all that is conspiracy theory.

[topshop]

Oil prices are down because of supply but I believe it is a game the Saudies are playing - When they raised the prices and reduced production Americans started to invest into US oil production and have some huge money borrowed to support the investments. Now the price is low and the Saudies are producing more lowering the price which will make all the American investments worthless. It is a way for the Saudies to get us back out of their business by making our investments turn to losses.

I have also been hearing radio ads looking for oil investors quoting the high return on investments that investors have made in the last few years. The big money investors are seeing their money start to shrinking again and are looking for patsies to take their falling stock before they loose it all - suckering the middle class - again.

The unemployment rates are false as Dan said because it is figured on people filing for benefits. The people who were counted before are not counted anymore because their benefits have run out and gave up on finding jobs. Some are now taking any low paying shit job they can find but their are plenty of people not working still.

Other than that, the economy is just ducky.

[graniteman]

Anyone knows WHO we owe 18 trillions to?

I hate being in these conversations because I'm very uneducated. But I have the interweb at my disposal and it never lies.

Looks like we owe the most to ourselves. Then to foreign countries. Only 1.3 trillion to China. Not as bad as I thought.

I only commented because I can feel happy-go-lucky anytime my bank account looks good but the real question is how bad am I in debt. The government isn't the same as a small business but it can't continue to go into debt. We need to stop spending or it will end in catastrophic failure. I know you like to be debt free Ken and so do I.

BTW I could care less about dem or rep. They all spend money foolishly and they all blame the last president for their spending and they all take credit if the next president succeeds. They want to say their policies just took time to help the nation.

[dan k.]

The Government can only really help the economy by getting out of the way and managing it's debt. It cannot do much else. However they can hurt the economy by getting in the way and building deficits.

While things may feel a little peachy for some, not all feel that way. Go ahead and ask the inner city communities how they feel about the economy and their job prospects.

A good President would be lobbying congress for more pipelines and off shore oil drilling. Lower global demand and higher production in the US are important factors for lowering oil prices. Do you think Obama is happy about higher production in the US ?

What is really scary is the price of groceries.

Why do Liberals like to compare Reagan to Obama so much? They are nothing alike. One was a man who united, the other a boy who divided.

[Dan R.]

Groceries are high, partially, because of ethanol. With subsidies and demand for corn for ethanol (which also uses an inordinate amount of fresh water), the price of grain feed of meat animals has increased, cutting margins and sending marginal producers into bankruptcy. Thereby, lowering supply and raising prices.

Or it could be just another conspiracy theory and everything is fine.

[Ken Lago]

I think prices go up on every thing for the same reason that Dan use when he raise his prices, or fire someone
When someone uses the term 'boy' to describe a 50+ year old black man what does that imply of the man saying it?

[Miles]

The real measure of this President is that since he took office people have forgotten about the worst recession since the great depression, the financial crisis that almost shut our economy down, and the huge bailouts just to keep the economy going. He must be good to make people forget all that in just 6 years.

When he took office the Dow Jones was at 7900 and it's now at about 17,500. That's almost a 10,000 point gain.

When he took office, unemployment was at 8.3% and immediately went to 10%. It's now at 5.8%

Yes, the debt has risen under Obama (like every other President, but at lower rates). But when he took office, the deficit was running at 1.3 trillion per year. This year it is around 480 billion. It's been cut by 2/3.

Job creation is at Bill Clinton era levels. But if you don't remember the great recession, you probably don't remember Bill Clinton!

[Miles]

Oh, and by all measures, Bill Clinton was the greatest economic President of all time. And we impeached him!

[dan k.]

Ken - To me it would be a idiom comparing character and results. To a race baiter, it would have another meeting. What meaning does it have to you Ken?